Story
Cannabis use prevalence before and early after partial legalisation in Germany
Key takeaway
After Germany partially legalized recreational cannabis in 2024, the prevalence of cannabis use remained stable, suggesting the policy change did not significantly impact public cannabis consumption in the short term.
Quick Explainer
This study examined how cannabis use prevalence in Germany changed after the country partially legalized recreational cannabis in 2024. Researchers conducted repeated surveys over several years, allowing them to observe trends in past-year cannabis use and daily/near-daily use before and after the policy change. By analyzing the survey data with statistical models, the researchers were able to identify whether the legalization impacted the overall prevalence of cannabis use or the proportion of heavy users. The key insight is that the partial legalization did not lead to a detectable change in either measure during the initial 1.5 years after implementation, though the researchers note the need for longer-term monitoring to fully understand the legislation's effects.
Deep Dive
Technical Deep Dive: Cannabis Use Prevalence Before and After Legalization in Germany
Overview
This study examined the prevalence of cannabis use in the general population of Germany before and after the country implemented partial legalization of recreational cannabis on April 1, 2024. The researchers conducted a series of 21 repeated cross-sectional surveys from April/May 2022 to October/November 2025, covering approximately two years before and one and a half years after the policy change.
Methodology
- The study included 32,991 participants aged 14-64 years, of whom 2,092 (6.3%) reported cannabis use in the past 12 months.
- The researchers measured:
- Past 12-month cannabis use (at least once)
- Daily or almost daily cannabis use among past 12-month users
- They used piecewise binomial logistic regression models, with the exact date of each survey wave as the predictor variable and allowing for a change in slope at the first full wave after the policy change in April 2024. This was done for the full sample and stratified by gender and age.
- Sensitivity analyses tested alternate intervention dates as placebo tests.
Results
- The prevalence of past 12-month cannabis use and the proportion of daily/almost daily users among 12-month users remained largely stable before and after the policy change.
- None of the slope coefficients before the policy change were statistically significant (p≥0.08), and none of the coefficients for the change in slope after the policy change were statistically significant (p≥0.31).
- Sensitivity analyses confirmed the stable trends for both outcomes.
Interpretation
The partial legalization of cannabis in Germany in April 2024 was not associated with a detectable change in the prevalence of cannabis use or the proportion of heavy users in the 1.5 years following implementation. The researchers recommend continued monitoring over a longer post-implementation period, as the effects of the legislation may not have fully unfolded yet.
Limitations & Uncertainties
- The study only covered the early period (1.5 years) after the policy change. Longer-term effects may still emerge.
- The study relied on self-reported cannabis use, which may be subject to social desirability bias, especially after legalization.
- The study did not assess changes in the frequency or quantity of cannabis use, only prevalence and proportion of daily/almost daily users.
What Comes Next
The researchers plan to continue monitoring trends in cannabis use prevalence and patterns over a longer post-implementation period. They also suggest exploring potential heterogeneous effects across subgroups and incorporating additional data sources beyond self-reported surveys.
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